In just two years, President Bola Tinubu’s foreign policy has taken a more assertive and economically driven turn, guided by the 4Ds—Diaspora, Development, Demography, and Democracy. Yet, as GIFT HABIB reports, these moves remain challenged by domestic insecurity, economic strain, and diplomatic gaps

Two years into President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, Nigeria’s foreign policy has seen a shift in tone and emphasis, reflecting a more outward-facing approach without fundamentally altering its core alliances.

Guided by a doctrine known as the 4Ds – Diaspora, Development, Demography, and Democracy – the administration has moved away from the traditionally reserved diplomacy of previous governments, choosing instead a more assertive and economically driven approach.

At the helm of this repositioning is the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, who has steered the country into new multilateral spaces. Nigeria has recently been recognised as a partner nation in the BRICS group, an emerging-market bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. While not a full member, the designation situates Nigeria in closer orbit to key global markets and non-Western development institutions. The partnership not only acknowledges Nigeria’s influence on the continent but also opens avenues for enhanced trade, investment, and geopolitical alignment.

Nigeria’s place on the African Union Peace and Security Council has been renewed through 2026, reaffirming its central role in continental security. The re-election of Ambassador Bankole Adeoye as Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security further underscores Nigeria’s enduring significance in the AU’s peace and governance architecture.

On the global front, Tinubu has made high-level appearances at G20 summits, notably in India and Brazil, where Nigeria was invited to engage with the world’s leading economies. These platforms were used to advocate for stronger representation for Africa and to present Nigeria as a viable destination for global investment. Beyond speeches, tangible outcomes are beginning to take shape. From India came $14bn in investment pledges spanning renewable energy, healthcare, and manufacturing. Brazil committed $2.5bn to agriculture, rekindling bilateral ties through the reactivation of the Nigeria-Brazil Dialogue. The Netherlands, too, stepped in with over €250m across critical development sectors, while Saudi Arabia signaled interest in large-scale joint ventures.

Partnerships with China have been elevated to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” signaling a deeper and longer-term alignment. China has already removed tariffs on Nigerian agricultural exports like cashew nuts, and discussions are advancing on major infrastructure projects from railways to refineries under the Belt and Road Initiative. These moves aim to marry Nigeria’s infrastructural deficits with Beijing’s capital and technical expertise.

On the continental level, Nigeria’s aspiration to host the African Central Bank and the African Energy Bank aligns with the AU’s Agenda 2063 and could place Nigeria at the financial and energy heart of Africa. Preliminary feasibility assessments and site selections have already begun, positioning Abuja and Lagos as likely hubs for these institutions. If realised, these moves would not only bolster Nigeria’s soft power but also inject fresh capital and employment opportunities into the economy.

Security cooperation has also evolved. In a landmark agreement, Nigeria gained AU clearance for its naval forces to participate in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions across the continent. The move formalised Nigeria’s longstanding maritime security ambitions and affirms its readiness to contribute to regional stability despite its own internal security challenges.

Environmental diplomacy has gained traction as well. Nigeria now co-chairs the Green Guarantee Company alongside Germany, aiming to channel private finance into green projects across the Global South. At COP28 and other international forums, Nigeria has championed its right to participate in carbon markets and climate resilience financing. The Green Imperative Programme with Brazil worth over $1bn has entered its implementation phase, promising a mechanised revolution in Nigerian agriculture and creating links between climate action and economic transformation.

Regionally, Tinubu’s leadership of ECOWAS has faced formidable tests. The spate of military coups in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso strained the bloc’s unity, and Nigeria’s push for sanctions initially found support but later waned under political and logistical pressure. While Nigeria’s resolve in condemning unconstitutional changes in government reaffirmed its leadership credentials, the outcome revealed the limits of influence in an increasingly fragmented West African landscape.

At home and abroad, the role of the Nigerian diaspora has emerged as a central pillar of the Tinubu doctrine. With remittances exceeding $20bn annually, diaspora Nigerians are no longer viewed solely as senders of money but as key players in national development. Through initiatives championed by the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, the government has expanded consular support, particularly in cases of wrongful detention or discrimination. Investment vehicles with sovereign guarantees are also being introduced to channel diaspora capital into agriculture, real estate, and fintech.

Yet the promise of this ambitious foreign policy agenda is tempered by real constraints. Many agreements remain in early stages, with timelines undefined and financing arrangements still fluid. Several diplomatic posts remain vacant due to delayed ambassadorial appointments, hampering Nigeria’s representation in critical capitals. Funding gaps continue to plague embassies, resulting in low morale, deteriorating facilities, and in some cases, threats of eviction.

Security remains a formidable challenge. Ongoing conflicts in the Northeast, separatist unrest in the Southeast, and rampant banditry in the Northwest stretch Nigeria’s military thin, raising questions about its capacity to fulfill expanded regional commitments.

On environmental policy, too, Nigeria’s credibility is in question. Ambitions to lead on green finance and climate diplomacy are undermined by a poor domestic environmental record, especially in the oil-producing Niger Delta, where spills and pollution remain rampant.

Retired Ambassador Rasheed Akinkuolie offers a grounded lens on these developments. Drawing from decades in diplomacy, he emphasised the importance of aligning foreign policy with domestic realities.

He stated that Nigeria’s foreign policy traditionally prioritises mutual interests within West Africa, followed by the African continent and, ultimately, the wider international community.

According to him, the factors that could have positively influenced the country’s foreign policy in the last two years particularly economic stability and improved security, have not seen significant improvement. He attributed some diplomatic shortcomings to financial constraints, including the inability of the government to appoint ambassadors. Senior officers serving as chargé d’affaires, he argued, could have been confirmed as ambassadors or reassigned to nearby missions to reduce costs.

The retired envoy noted, “The factors that could influence Nigeria’s foreign policy positively in the past two years have not significantly improved, especially the economy and the state of insecurity.

“The government could not appoint ambassadors because of paucity of funds. Whereas, senior officers, who are Charge d’Affaire at post, should have been confirmed, as full fledged ambassadors plenipotentiary, without leaving their posts, or simply by cross posting them to nearby missions, which will not involve much expenditures.”

Akinkuolie also highlighted Nigeria’s firm stance against military juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. He said this position may have discouraged further coups in the region. However, he noted that the economic sanctions initially imposed on these countries were later lifted when it became evident they were impacting civilians more than the junta leaders. The ex-envoy commended the restoration of military cooperation with Niger Republic, which he described as a pragmatic and diplomatic approach to combating terrorist groups such as ISWAP.

In terms of economic diplomacy, he praised President Tinubu’s efforts to attract foreign investment from the Middle East, stating that these drives have begun to yield results. He encouraged private sector operators to capitalize on these opportunities, particularly in agriculture, where Nigerian food crops are in high demand internationally.

The ambassador also acknowledged the efforts of the Nigeria in Diaspora Commission in addressing consular issues, including the unlawful detention and mistreatment of Nigerians abroad, describing the commission’s performance as commendable.

On domestic matters affecting foreign policy, Akinkuolie called for the establishment of state police forces to address internal security challenges more effectively. He also advocated for greater government involvement in the economy, recommending models similar to those of China and Vietnam.

He explained, “The strong position taken by the Nigerian government against the military juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso may have deterred other military coups in West Africa. However, the sanctions imposed on these countries was lifted, when it was hurting ordinary people more than the junta leaders. Nigeria restored military cooperation with Niger republic to more effectively fight ISWAP and other terrorist groups, which is a pragmatic way and diplomatic way of dealing with a complex problem.

“President Tinubu’s  foreign investment drives to the Middle East have yielded positive results. Private sector operators only need to seize the opportunities in the various sectors, especially in agriculture, by adding value to the numerous food crops of Nigeria, which are highly valued abroad.

“The role of Nigeria Diaspora Commission in dealing with consular matters, such as unlawful detention and maltreatment of Nigerians abroad is commendable

There are straight forward issues, which could not only adversely affect foreign policy objectives, but the nation as a whole. There must be State Police, to eliminate the criminal aspects of insecurity in the country. The government must be more involved in the economy, using the Chinese and Vietnamese models.”

The retired diplomat underscored that without addressing critical internal challenges, Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives will continue to face significant obstacles.

Another retired ambassador, Ogbole Amedu-Ode, offered his assessment of Nigeria’s foreign policy performance.

Amedu-Ode acknowledged that the government has made progress, particularly in attracting foreign investment and elevating Nigeria’s profile on the global stage.

According to him, these achievements are “largely attributed to the administration’s foreign policy strategy built around the 4Ds.”

Despite these positive strides, the retired diplomat highlighted a major challenge facing Nigeria’s regional leadership; the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS. He noted that the development came during Tinubu’s tenure as Chair of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government.

“The downside of our foreign policy exertions so far is the ECOWAS impasse that led, eventually, to the exiting of the three Sahelian states,” Amedu-Ode said.

He stressed the need for renewed diplomatic efforts to bring the three countries back into the ECOWAS fold, arguing that “their return would enhance regional stability and reaffirm Nigeria’s leadership role in West Africa.”