Nigeria and Angola are poised to spearhead Africa’s push for energy independence as the continent’s refining capacity is projected to climb to 90 per cent, up from just 45 per cent last year.

A new report by the Africa Finance Corporation titled “State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025,” which was obtained by Sunday PUNCH stated this.

The report highlighted the shifting landscape in Africa’s energy sector driven by a wave of refinery investments, with Nigeria at the forefront, aided by the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery and the planned revival of state-owned facilities.

According to the AFC, Africa is edging towards self-sufficiency in petroleum products, stating that transportation, storage and distribution infrastructure must be upgraded to ensure fuel security.

If fully utilised, the report said refining capacity could meet up to 90 per cent of the continent’s fuel demand, compared to just 45 per cent last year.

The report revealed that over $16bn was needed for brownfield upgrades, modernising existing refineries to meet clean fuel standards and reduce reliance on imported fuels.

Simultaneously, greenfield investments, particularly in Nigeria and Angola, are critical for meeting future demand.

“First, brownfield upgrades: over $16 billion is needed to modernise existing refineries, meet clean fuel standards, and reduce reliance on imports. Second, greenfield investment is key to meeting future demand, with Nigeria and Angola emerging as new continental hubs,” the AFC stated.

It added that the two oil-rich nations were strategically positioned to anchor the continent’s refining resurgence.

Currently, Africa remains heavily dependent on fuel imports.

In 2023, 55 per cent of petroleum product demand was met through imports.

But the AFC believes this could fall drastically to 10 per cent, if existing and new refining capacity are optimised.

The report noted that the commissioning of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, alongside the phased reopening of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries between 2024 and 2026, could significantly transform fuel security in the short term.

It said, “In 2023, 55 per cent of Africa’s demand for petroleum products was met by imports. However, if refining capacity were fully utilised, this number could drop to only 10 per cent.

“In that regard, the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, along with the gradual re-opening of the Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries in Nigeria (2024-2026) could significantly transform the continent’s fuel security landscape in the short term.”

Still, the AFC cautioned that the Dangote Refinery alone will not be sufficient to meet Africa’s growing fuel demand, especially in light of prolonged refinery shutdowns in Libya and South Africa, as well as frequent disruptions in Egypt.

“More capacity addition is needed,” the report warned, calling for urgent attention to feedstock access, distribution infrastructure, and financing bottlenecks that currently hamper the sector,” he stated.

While Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, the country has paradoxically been unable to consistently supply crude oil to its domestic refineries due to entrenched export contracts and limited local allocation.

The AFC further stated “the sector’s growth is closely tied to the modernisation of existing refineries in West and Central Africa, overcoming feedstock and financing challenges for new projects, and addressing critical infrastructure bottlenecks in transportation and distribution networks.

“To achieve fuel security and meet the continent’s increasing demand, Africa must prioritise investment in refinery upgrades, develop efficient distribution systems—including pipelines, railways, and diversified port infrastructure. As new energy infrastructure is built, it must also be resilient and capable of supporting future energy transitions. The successful integration of these elements will be crucial for achieving long-term fuel security and energy independence across the continent.

“Across West and Southern Africa in particular, a new wave of refinery investment can unlock efficiency, reduce fuel import bills, and enable countries to meet growing demand through cleaner, domestic production. With the right policy frameworks and blended finance models, Africa’s refinery network can be transformed into a critical foundation of the continent’s future energy resilience.

“Access to crude oil feedstock is another challenge that must be overcome, both for

producing and non-producing oil markets. Oil-producing companies mostly sell crude oil on the export market via long-term contracts and allocations with traders or financiers, leaving little space for the domestic supply. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is a good example given that it supplies crude oil to Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal’s refineries yet does not have enough oil to feed its facilities,” the AFC stated.

Beyond refining, the report stressed that transporting fuel by road was no longer sustainable, revealing that 83 per cent of petroleum products in Africa were moved by trucks, leading to congestion, higher costs, and logistical inefficiencies.

It called for a transition to railways and pipelines to ease fuel logistics.

Despite the cost-effectiveness of rail transport for bulk liquids, many existing railway-connected depots, especially in Cameroon, Angola, South Africa, and the DRC, require urgent rehabilitation and modernisation.

It also recommended designing multi-fuel adaptable pipelines that can support the future transport of sustainable aviation fuel, LPG, and hydrogen, thereby enhancing long-term infrastructure viability and attracting capital investment.

It noted, “Similarly, pipeline projects should be conceptualised by considering future reconversion opportunities to transport transitional fuels like sustainable aviation fuels, liquefied petroleum gas and hydrogen. By designing pipelines with multi-fuel adaptability and integration into broader logistics networks, developers can enhance project viability, attract long-term capital, and safeguard infrastructure against future market shifts.

“To be efficient and cheaper, fuel logistics must also move away from roads.

An assessment by CITAC and Puma Energy found that 83 per cent of oil products distributed in Africa were transported by trucks, leading to congestion and capacity constraints, given additional roads, loading and evacuation requirements.

This overreliance on trucking can be addressed with more efficient solutions like railways or pipelines, where feasible.

“Despite its cost-effectiveness and suitability for bulk liquid transport, the use of rail for petroleum products remains limited across Africa. Several markets—including Cameroon, Angola, the DRC, and South Africa—already have fuel depots and storage tanks connected to railway lines. However, several of these are state-owned assets in need of rehabilitation, asset integrity upgrades, and operational modernisation. In many cases, deteriorated rail infrastructure is the limiting factor. Yet, fuel transport volumes could serve as a reliable anchor to justify broader railway investments and revitalise national rail systems that support multi-sector logistics.”

In West and Southern Africa, a new wave of refining projects, if backed by effective policy frameworks and blended finance models can reduce import dependency and foster cleaner, domestic fuel production.

The report also stressed the importance of resilient, future-ready infrastructure to accommodate Africa’s eventual transition to cleaner energy sources, while still meeting near-term petroleum needs.